News  General

Efficiency

The Times story includes this observation from the economist Fed governor Jerome Powell, who previously led the IMF. 'The global economy is in a slightly better position now than it was about five years ago,' he says. 'In both of those cases, the consequences of a weaker adjustment were rather significant. To a first approximation, then, a low interest rate environment is very favorable to the global economy.'

The economic effects of fiscal policy are nearly always examined in conjunction with macroeconomic questions; questions about the efficient use of money, public debt, and the impact of monetary policy; questions about the adequacy of regulation and the economy's sustainability; and questions about structural problems and the economic malaise of the country.

n the absence of contracts, the existence of an arrangement that allows for unchosen actions to push the economy in a certain direction does not translate into a given policy choice. It's analogous to asking whether a person would have traded his or her virginity for money. If the answer is no, there is no need to analyze the contract or determine the implications

Planned policies

The potential presence of risk in fiscal and monetary policy responses was addressed by holding the growth and price dynamic constant. (This was done by aggregating data for the three main variables using log likelihood covariance). This revealed that there was a small but non-significant effect of the confidence interval on the forecast, (3.08 to 3.15). This was related to the construction of confidence intervals in that an extension of the existing method of defining confidence intervals, and applying with 'safety', produced a slightly stronger impact on forecasts.

Interest

When left to its own devices, as opposed to being prevented by central bankers from trying to manipulate interest rates, the Federal Reserve has historically done a good job of keeping the federal funds rate low enough to stimulate economic activity. While that policy has not always succeeded, there is more evidence that Fed policy at least has had a significant impact on economic activity than is commonly acknowledged. For example, from 1978 to 1995, as markets were finally forced to adjust to the first round of high-interest rate environments, average real GDP growth averaged 4.0 percent per year, higher than the 3.7 percent annual rate of growth for the years 1966 to 1972.

in the short run but is not consistent with sound macroeconomic policy over the long run. However, as with in the prior sentence, this does not necessarily mean that the short run implications of using fiscal policy are a true indicator of the quality of fiscal policy. Note that under "dynamic" fiscal policy, where the central bank no longer directly purchases Treasury bonds, it will be part of the economy's saving function. Thus it may not accurately represent the incentives facing private firms to reduce demand for saving even if the central bank does not directly involve itself in the economy's saving function..